Since World War II, the West has supported and, in many cases, imposed numerous governments around the world. The record of longevity and clear successes of these governments is remarkably poor. Afghanistan is one such failure. About once a generation or so, there is a country or region that proves to be the exception and is able to make something of this assistance. The best exception to date? South Korea. It took two generations, but the country is a vibrant, democratic member of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 

Ukraine has all the essential ingredients to become a successful democracy,  but as the zen master in the film Charlie Wilson’s War says: “we’ll see.”

Since it is the Ukrainians on the ground who are fighting and suffering, the world’s democracies must be supportive but mindful that it is up to the Ukrainians to decide which terms to accept to end the conflict. Ukraine must guard against becoming a Western proxy to  bleed Russia.

The short- and medium-term objectives of the Russian state are now more limited. It appears to want land and retribution. The way the Russian army is demolishing cities and uprooting and killing civilians is akin to an angry teenage boy acting out his frustration. The war as prosecuted makes no political, economic, or even military sense. In January 2022, the highly regarded — and rather hawkish — 78-year-old retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, Chairman of the Russian Officers Assembly, publicly warned the Kremlin that war in Ukraine would be catastrophic. The facts to date confirm his apprehension.

The outrages committed daily by Russia’s military are steadily lessening Western restraint on the types of weapons sent to Ukraine. For example, the recently announced supply of British anti-ship missiles to the Ukrainians should be a game changer for Odessa and the sections of Black Sea coast which remain in Ukrainian hands. Ukraine is a major food exporter and needs access to maritime routes. In an interconnected world, this access is also important for the millions upon millions reliant on Ukrainian agriculture in importing countries such as Turkey, Iran, Egypt, and South Korea, among others.

Russia’s very poor treatment of civilians is also encouraging the West to ratchet sanctions against Russia. Notably, Germany and other European countries are now looking to wean themselves from Russian oil and natural gas. The latter will be the greater challenge.

For the time being, Russia cannot invade the Western half of Ukraine. Russia does not have sufficient willing armed forces or logistical support. Belarus is a weak and unreliable ally (as with some Chechens, there are Belarusians fighting for Ukraine). Russia’s economy is shrinking and, at this time, is probably 20 times smaller than that of Ukraine’s supporters. Ukraine’s backers in Europe and elsewhere can continue to support Ukraine for a long time. Russia’s largest ally, China, is foremost a mercantile nation that prefers order and predictability. While China has tried to help Russia, its patience is wearing thin. Russia’s actions are unhelpful to China’s economy and could open the door to secondary sanctions and boycotts. China still has 500 to 600 million of its citizens to lift out of poverty. Moreover, Russia’s threat of using weapons of mass destruction is no longer working: the West would retaliate in some fashion. Among other things the West could invoke its Responsibility to Protect by creating sanctuaries, including no fly zones over parts of Ukraine — a move Russia’s armed forces would not be able to oppose.

Unfortunately, Russia can continue to wage war in Eastern Ukraine for a long time. Russia’s primary weapon at this time is uncertainty. Uncertainty is corrosive and can paralyze whole economies with relatively little outward effort. Russia could unilaterally cease fire, declare victory and watch Ukraine’s Western backers as well as part of Ukraine’s population pressure the Ukrainian government into accepting Russia’s terms. It could then in a few months, or years, resume the violence to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty.

It seems, however, that Russia wants another chance to demonstrate its military capacities and plans on continuing to conduct conventional warfare on the open plains and cities of Ukraine. To succeed, Russia will have to demonstrate skills that have so far been in short supply: force coordination, troop morale and discipline, logistical support, and secure communications.